Will the current climate lead to a 2008-2009 style financial crisis?
Readers of a certain age will be familiar with the cartoon Roadrunner and in particular the work of Wile E Coyote. Wile E’s entire existence was predicated on his need to catch Roadrunner, coming up with ever more elaborate schemes to achieve his goal. He would order some contraption from the ACME company (a forerunner of Amazon noted for the ability to deliver anything, anywhere, within a day) before inevitably failing in his goal as Roadrunner gave him the slip once more.
However, Wile E was also magic. He could defy gravity, temporarily. Having tried to chase Roadrunner over a cliff for the millionth time, he would levitate – briefly – before becoming aware of his situation and plummeting to the ground. To quote Radiohead, ‘Gravity always wins.’ Today, I feel like we may be having a Wile E moment with global markets and the economy. A brief but exhilarating moment of weightlessness before gravity wins again. Because, rather like Wile E’s experience of gravity, monetary policy works with a lag.
To read Rob Scammell's full thoughts on why the markets and global economies may be experiencing a period of weightlessness before heading for a bumpy landing, download the document below.
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Lead Portfolio Manager, FM UK
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