Is the UK heading for bailout?

17 September 2025

Recent commentary has sparked speculation that the UK could be heading for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. Some of this comes from respected economists, including a former MPC member and the ex-head of NEISR and deserves consideration. However, we think this commentary should be taken with a pinch of salt. The UK economy does face serious challenges that this or a future government need to take seriously, but an IMF intervention remains unlikely.

This paper examines the IMF’s role and its relevance to the UK’s current situation. It reviews lessons learned from the 1970s Sterling crisis and considers what is driving UK gilt yields compared to international peers. it also considers what a theoretical bailout might look like

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The author

Rob Scammel

r.scammell@vanlanschotkempen.com

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Capital at risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise, and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance provides no guarantee for the future.

Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management (UK) Limited is registered in England & Wales with registration number 02833264. Registered office at 20 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0BG Tel: +44 (0)20 3636 9400. Van Lanschot Kempen Investment Management (UK) Ltd, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) with reference number 166063.